Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FIL prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-10-19 1.384706 1.452906 1.523419 1.601935 1.687115 1.776950 1.879146
2025-10-26 1.279192 1.375733 1.479621 1.600356 1.737621 1.889802 2.072658
2025-11-02 1.208350 1.321009 1.445543 1.594614 1.769828 1.971323 2.223697
2025-11-09 1.144706 1.266930 1.404820 1.573692 1.777462 2.018828 2.331746
2025-11-16 1.091839 1.220648 1.368429 1.552907 1.780540 2.057177 2.426976
2025-11-23 1.056921 1.192632 1.350779 1.551776 1.805141 2.120823 2.555843
2025-11-30 1.031889 1.174506 1.343148 1.561174 1.841714 2.199901 2.708753
2025-12-07 0.996391 1.141770 1.315657 1.543521 1.841592 2.229805 2.795428
2025-12-14 0.959666 1.105874 1.282434 1.516451 1.826903 2.238243 2.851002
2025-12-21 0.931301 1.079127 1.259335 1.500913 1.825953 2.264206 2.932192
2025-12-28 0.917967 1.070481 1.258454 1.513809 1.863171 2.344181 3.098116
2026-01-04 0.901033 1.056536 1.250023 1.515940 1.885167 2.403150 3.236021
2026-01-11 0.888134 1.047730 1.248404 1.527785 1.922202 2.487483 3.423754
2026-01-18 0.869900 1.031448 1.236381 1.524844 1.937939 2.541119 3.566811
2026-01-25 0.851962 1.014891 1.223263 1.519569 1.949592 2.588654 3.703262
2026-02-01 0.829672 0.991942 1.200799 1.500190 1.939329 2.601255 3.779904
2026-02-08 0.808656 0.970079 1.179078 1.480927 1.928111 2.611285 3.852236
2026-02-15 0.795516 0.958257 1.170498 1.479878 1.943938 2.664963 4.008361
2026-02-22 0.786608 0.951773 1.168885 1.488590 1.974756 2.744533 4.220882
2026-03-01 0.769299 0.933538 1.150544 1.472224 1.965842 2.757325 4.305393
2026-03-08 0.749722 0.911798 1.126791 1.447114 1.942090 2.743561 4.335540
2026-03-15 0.734635 0.895823 1.110648 1.432691 1.934549 2.756923 4.421821
2026-03-22 0.729083 0.892676 1.112295 1.444661 1.969467 2.845750 4.674644